Soccer betting strategies
Making money betting on soccer takes time, knowledge, and attention to detail. With these simple tips, you can get an edge on beating the books and making profit.
Know the rules of each wager
This is the number one mistake that many new soccer bettors make. Many books have different rules for different bets, and the wording can be tricky if you aren’t paying attention. For example, when you are betting on goal scorer props, you need to know which books will void a wager if the player doesn’t start versus which books will take action if he plays as little as a single minute.
You also need to know the rules pertaining to extra time. While the three-way moneyline is typically graded after 90 minutes and doesn’t include extra time, many player props do. So if you bet on Harry Kane to score for England and his first goal of the match comes in the 110th minute, you’ll want to know whether that particular book is going to grade that as a win or not.
Injuries and lineups
When it comes to soccer betting, this can be one of the biggest factors when it comes to line movement. Lineups typically come out about 60 to 90 minutes before kickoff, and they can drastically swing odds one way or another. This is especially true when it comes to player props such as goal scorers or total shots.
If you want to get good closing line value on soccer markets, pay attention before the lineups come out. See what the manager says in his press conference. Know who is injured and who might be in line for rest or rotation. Look through past lineups for the manager to see what his tendencies are.
Tournaments like the World Cup, where matches come just a few days apart, often see players rotated and rested depending on what the team needs. This is particularly the case in the second and third match of the group stage. Knowing all the information you can will allow you to get the best odds possible on your wagers.
Know the motivation of both teams
This is vitally important when betting on a tournament like the Euro Cup.
Not every team will match up well against the opposition and for teams like Albania, Georgia, etc, stealing a point against a group powerhouse is as good as three points for them.
They would likely be content with sitting back and trying to soak up as much pressure as possible before takin their chances on the counter-attack with limited time remaining.
Dig into the tactics
England struggles against teams that sit in a low block and defend. France is lethal on the counter-attack. Spain wants to keep as much possession as possible and use tiki-taka passing to create opportunities. Brazil wants to get the ball to Vinicius Jr. on the break and allow him to dictate the counter-attack.
If you see that a team is giving up goals on one side of the pitch more than the other, that’s important data. Look to see if their opponent has a fast, dynamic winger who could give them problems. If a team likes to sit back and defend and force shots from distance, then look at the corner total and try to find favorable odds.
Soccer, maybe more than any other sport you will bet on, is all about tactics. Knowing how a team prefers to play, and what their opponent’s strengths and weaknesses are, is pivotal to analyzing lines and finding value.
Soccer live betting tips
While attempting to predict how a match will play out before kickoff is probably the most popular type of soccer bet, in-game live betting also presents another opportunity to get some skin in the game, or to hedge against a pre-game bet. Live betting is placing a bet on a match while it is currently in play.
During a match, the odds will shift as the game progresses and as outcomes become more likely or less likely. Fans can also make in-game bets hoping to capitalize on momentum shifts.
Many pre-game bets are no longer available in-game. But there are a few that are exclusive to live betting periods such as Next Team to Score, Next Player to Score, Next Player to be Booked, Next Corner, and What Team Wins the Rest of the Match.
Here are a few tips on how to live bet matches.
- Follow momentum changes, but don’t overreact
Momentum can swing several times between teams during the course of a soccer match as well as during a season. So you shouldn’t get caught up in any single shift in play.
Instead, always take a big picture look at the game. Has a team spent 20 minutes with the upper hand and failed to score? That can indicate a rough day in front of net, and the opponent may be lurking. Has a midfield or attacking player been significantly influential through a certain passage of play? Look for the other team to make tactical tweaks to correct for this, which could either negate the advantage or open up space for a teammate.
Also, halftime can be a momentum killer. Just because a team was better in the first half doesn’t mean they’ll come out of halftime with the same vigor, especially as the other team now has an opportunity to make significant changes. Conversely, a team second-best for the first 45 minutes can utilize halftime as a fresh start.
Pay attention to how halftime affects various teams and players, and how certain managers handle halftime. Some managers have a reputation of being either brilliant or underwhelming with their halftime adjustments.
- Get a feel for what a manager is trying to accomplish
A manager’s tactical plan will adjust during the course of a match. Changes in game flow will affect how a manager approaches different phases of the 90 minutes.
Here are some key moments to watch out for:
Is the coach of an underdog hoping to play defensively and hit on the counter?
How motivated is each side to venture forward and take risks to score a goal?
If a team is up big, will their manager continue to attack and look for more or decide to shut it down and defend the lead?
How desperate is the team to score more goals? Or are they more focused on not conceding?
All these factors can decide how risk-on or risk-off a team will play, and the answers can change over the course of a match. While none of us are in the coach’s head, we can watch for clues on the field, such as substitutions made, formation tweaks, passing trends (are they resorting to the long ball?), pressing (where are they applying the press?), and more.
- Keep an eye on individual players
Keep mental notes on individual players and how they are faring during the course of a match, especially early on. Their execution, energy levels and desire — or lack thereof -— may provide an indication that they could be set for a great game, or conversely, that they might be in for an off-game. The opposing player they’re matching up against could be playing a factor (positively or negatively).